New “Golden Dome” price tag warning

Veteran Pentagon budget and space policy analyst Todd Harrison just published a new, detailed accounting of costs and obstacles for President Trump’s ambitious, comprehensive missile defense shield for the U.S. he’s called “Golden Dome.” 

Background: The project’s goals were first publicly discussed by President Reagan in the early 1980s, but they couldn’t be achieved due to technical limitations and exorbitant costs. More recently, however, Elon Musk’s pioneering work at SpaceX to lower the cost of satellite launches has changed that calculus, and opened the door for current U.S. military officials to proceed with plans to knit together existing missile defense elements into one network of sensors and effectors, including yet-to-be-developed space-based interceptors. (Defense One’s Patrick Tucker explained these dynamics for us in a podcast last month.)

President Trump said the system could cost just $175 billion. But Harrison is not nearly so optimistic, warning Friday, “A system that protects against the full range of aerial threats posed by peer and near-peer adversaries could cost $3.6 trillion over 20 years, and even then, it would fall short of the ‘100 percent’ effectiveness the president claimed.” That’s at least partly because, as Harrison writes, “Even small shifts in objectives for Golden Dome can produce outsized changes in cost, and the largest cost driver by far is space-based interceptors.” Indeed, he continues, “the $175 billion price tag President Trump cited only affords a much less capable system that is no match for the quantity of missiles China and Russia possess.”

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