In tiny Estonia, drones lead booming defense expansion

Estonian defense firms are projected to see $842 million in sales revenue in 2025, according to figures exclusively shared with Breaking Defense, representing a 347 percent growth since 2021.

TALLINN — When Estonian drone-maker Threod Systems announced a new $6.6 million contract on Tuesday with the United Kingdom for drone launchers, it may have seemed small by international arms deal standards.

But the price tag belies a more striking trend: It’s the latest deal for an Estonian defense industry that’s seen a dramatic boom in the last few years, growing nearly 350 percent since 2021.

That’s according to a new forecast by the Estonian Defense and Aerospace Industry Association, shared exclusively with Breaking Defense, that says Estonia’s 138 defense companies could see $842 in sales revenue and an export turnover of $518 million for 2025.

Compared to just last year, those figures would mean a 45 percent increase in sales and 43 percent increase in export turnover.

The growth is inextricably linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, turning Kyiv into one valued customer, and persistent concerns Moscow could try something similar along NATO’s eastern frontier. It’s also prompted Estonian firms to move more quickly to address changing threats on the battlefield.

“Estonia may adapt its own capabilities to this new warfare quicker than other EU member states because of its geographical closeness to Russia,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute researcher Jade Guiberteau Ricard told Breaking Defense.

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