How the war in Ukraine is impacting security in the Indo-Pacific

Numerous discussions at Shangri-La either by accident or by design ended up wandering into the territory of “what does the Ukraine conflict tell us about the potential for a conflict in our own backyard.” Sideline conversations similarly ended up in that territory. Ukrainian officials could be seen sprinkled throughout the crowd, working to shore up regional support.

Participants and delegates to the Singapore event who talked with Breaking Defense were largely in agreement that this European war has raised the level of anxiety about existing tensions in Asia, with three key focus areas.

The first is the uncomfortable reality, articulated in several public forums ahead of Shangri-La by former EUCOM Commander and retired US Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine “is what failed deterrence looks like.”  One senior staff member from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), one of Singapore’s largest foreign policy think-tanks, echoed this to Breaking Defense by saying Ukraine has “shown decision makers in the region that the supposedly ‘unthinkable’ possibility of a major war in which at least one of the protagonists is a nuclear power is now very much a terrifying current-day reality.” And that staff member was not alone in drawing a direct line to thinking about China and Taiwan.

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse e-mail ne sera pas publiée. Les champs obligatoires sont indiqués avec *