China’s rapid space launch advantage, and how the US can try to counter it.

La Chine a maintenant dépassé les États-Unis dans ses capacités de lancement spatial tactiquement réactives, selon un nouveau rapport du Center for Security and Emerging Technology.

In recent years, US officials have emphasized a desire for “tactically responsive” space launch — the ability to get a system in orbit as fast as battlefield conditions require, instead of the usual years-long process. In a new analysis, Sam Bresnick of at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), warns that the US’s main competitor already has a leg up in that race. 

In a bid to directly rival and compete with SpaceX’s Starlink network, Chinese military officials are advocating for the speedy deployment of a low-Earth orbit constellation of almost 13,000 satellites. While the scale of this particular endeavor may seem surprising, it is in keeping with the accelerated advancement of Beijing’s space industry. The last five years have seen a marked increase in China’s satellite launches, and the country now boasts the second most extensive space architecture after the United States.

Satellites power modern communications networks and facilitate weather forecasting, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), like other modern fighting forces, is integrating satellite-enabled capabilities into its military doctrine. The PLA has developed satellites for position, navigation, timing (PNT) services, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, communications, and even early missile warning systems. As China’s dependence on space has increased for both economic and security applications, Beijing has poured resources into improving the durability of its growing space architecture, both by designing systems that are resilient to attack and by deterring attacks against its satellites.

To be sure, it is difficult to fully measure China’s space resilience due to the limited open-source data on specific satellite capabilities. It is also challenging to define the concept, as the United States and China are likely enacting different strategies to improve the resilience of their respective space architectures. That said, our survey of China’s space launches and its satellites’ orbital positioning reveals that the country’s space architecture is becoming increasingly resilient. China is positioning its satellites in an array of diverse orbital regions, making it more complex for any potential adversary to disrupt its space systems, and increasing the likelihood that China could continue to use space-enabled technologies despite attacks on its space architecture.

Our most important finding, however, is that in one measure of space resilience, tactically responsive space launch (TRSL), China appears to have surpassed the United

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