China recently launched its third aircraft carrier and first with
a flat deck and catapult launch system. The rapid construction
of three carriers in a decade demonstrates Chinese industrial
prowess but questions remain about how soon Beijing will be
able to operate them effectively. Above, the Fujian is towed out
of dry dock during its launch ceremony in Shanghai on June 17.
China is rapidly modernizing its navy, as illustrated by the recent launch of its third aircraft
carrier in the last decade. The Fujian (CV-18) is the first flat-deck aircraft carrier built by China
and its first truly indigenous design. As many experts have noted, however, it is one thing to
build an aircraft carrier and quite another to operate it effectively
The late Andrew Marshall, who oversaw the Office of Net Assessment at the Pentagon from
1973 to 2015, held a long view toward the acquisition of carrier capability by the Chinese
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). When Beijing launched its first carrier, the Liaoning,
he said, “well, I’m glad they finally have an aircraft carrier.”
His view was that the power projection capacity brought by an aircraft carrier would only be
achieved at a tremendous opportunity cost. That cost, as he saw it, would be much greater than
the benefits of having a carrier air wing.
A decade later, the Chinese navy shows no signs of slowing its pursuit of a carrier force,
launching its third carrier on June 17. The Fujian is the first with a conventional flat deck and
catapult launch and arrested recovery systems. The first two carriers were built with ski jumps to
help aircraft take off.
Beijing’s rapid drive for a carrier capability has been impressive in its speed but also raises
questions. The Fujian is believed to be a one-off design, meaning China will have three distinct
carriers in service (although the Liaoning is primarily intended for training), each with their own
operational peculiarities and logistics requirements. Accordingly, this small fleet will require a
significantly greater personnel and logistics commitment than three carriers of a common design.
From Varyag to Liaoning
The start of the Chinese carrier program has its origins in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The
Liaoning was intended to be the second Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier for the Soviet navy. She
was only partially completed when the USSR collapsed and was inherited by newly independent
Ukraine, which took ownership of the Mykolaiv shipyards on the Black Sea.
Then known as the Varyag, she was sold to a Chinese shell company in 1998, which said it
planned to turn the carrier into a floating casino. The Chinese government subsequently took
possession of the ship and began refitting her as a warship. The Liaoning was formally delivered
on Sept. 23, 2012, and commissioned into service two days later.
She has since completed several shakedown cruises and various sea trials, including successfully
launching and recovering aircraft. Given her age and origins, she has limited operational value,
but, as noted by Andrew Erickson, a Chinese military specialist at the U.S. Naval War College,
the Liaoning made China “only the fifth country in the world to have accomplished those carrierbased takeoffs and landings, which is no small accomplishment.”
China’s Flawed Carrier Fighter
The Fujian’s flat deck and catapult-assisted takeoff capability is a major change for China’s
carrier force. The Liaoning and Shandong, an improved version of the Liaoning, each have a
bow ski ramp that provides the necessary up-angle for jets to take off from their limited flight
decks. This has been a weakness of Chinese carrier operations, largely due to issues with the
Shenyang J-15 carrier-capable fighter, a reverse-engineered, unlicensed copy of the Russian
Sukhoi Su-33
The J-15 is based on an early, preproduction prototype of the Su-33 that was left in Ukraine after
the collapse of the Soviet Union. The aircraft was later acquired by China in a separate deal that
ran parallel to the acquisition of the Liaoning. The carrier fighter ended up being heavier than the
Su-33, which was already too heavy for ski-ramp launches. With the retirement of the U.S.
Grumman F-14 Tomcat in 2006, the J-15 is the heaviest carrier-based fighter in the world. The
excess weight was such a problem that it was cited among the reasons Russia declared the Su-33
design obsolete in 2015.
To take off without catapult assistance and with a full fuel load, the J-15 can only carry 2 metric
tons of its advertised 12-metric-ton payload. A common loadout is just two CASIC YJ-83K antiship missiles and two PL-8 infrared-guided air-to-air missiles.
A Chinese military source told the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) that the J-15 is so
overweight that “even the U.S. Navy’s new generation C13-2 steam catapult launch engines that
are installed on Nimitz-class aircraft carriers would struggle to launch the aircraft efficiently.”
(The South China Morning Post is sometimes used as an outlet by industry and military officials
to leak information that officials in Beijing do not want released in mainland, Chinese-language
publications.)
China’s carrier fighter adventure has also illustrated the inability of the Chinese defense sector to
produce reliable jet engines with the performance and service life required for the demands of
carrier operations. The initial jets that flew from PLAN carriers were powered by Salyut AL-31F
engines first acquired from Russia in the 1990s because Chinese-made engines were inadequate
Four years ago, it was reported that China had produced a new variant of the WS-10 series
engine in a similar class to the Salyut powerplants. The WS-10H reportedly generates sufficient
thrust to power the heavy J-15.
Lin Zuoming, the former chairman of the state-owned Aviation Corp. of China (AVIC) told
Chinese media in 2017 that the WS-10H features advanced single-crystal turbine blades that can
reliably withstand temperatures of up to 3,630 degrees Fahrenheit (2,000 degrees Celsius) and
claimed that improvements had extended its lifespan from 800 hours to 1,500 hours.
The PLAN’s 1st Flattop
The Chinese navy hopes that the Fujian will overcome the limitations of its previous aircraft
carriers. The catapult-launch system is not a traditional steam catapult design, according to
Chinese sources, but rather an electromagnetic system similar to that fitted on the U.S. Navy’s
latest Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers.
(There is circumstantial evidence suggesting that the technical data that the PLAN used to
develop its electromagnetic launch system was stolen from U.S. computer databases. This was
not possible to verify from satellite imagery because the Fujian’s catapult tracks were concealed
under a long series of canopies festooned with Chinese Communist Party slogans during its
launch.)
China’s demonstrated ability to launch larger and more advanced aircraft carriers is a growing
concern for the U.S. Navy and its allies in the Asia-Pacific. Beijing has made clear its ambitions
to develop a blue-water navy capable of competing with the U.S. At the same time, there is
reason to believe that China still has obstacles to overcome to reach that goal, not least in the
technical sphere.
For example, electromagnetic launch technology is not quite mature. The U.S. has so far
struggled to launch aircraft at an acceptable rate using its electromagnetic launchers without
suffering intermittent technical problems. The U.S. Navy, however, has decades of experience in
carrier operations to fall back on as it develops solutions. China has no such history and will
need to take a more resource-intensive “trial-and-error” approach.
China’s experience with its two previous carriers demonstrates additional challenges. The
Liaoning and Shandong conducted a large number of sea trials, evidence showed that each had
numerous design issues that had to be worked out. The Liaoning performed 10 trials over 13
months, while the Shandong took part in nine trials in 18 months. While the Shandong formally
entered service three years ago, she is still not rated as combat ready.
Carriers In Need Of Fighters
The PLAN also has a requirement for a new carrier-capable aircraft. Adapting the J-15 for
catapult launch is a short-term solution, since the aircraft was not designed for the stresses of
carrier operations.
Shenyang Aerospace (SAC) has been developing a carrier variant of the FC-31/J-31 aircraft,
which has been more recently referred to as the J-35, but there has been no official indication of
when the type might enter service in any numbers. The Chinese navy has declared plans to have
at least four operational carrier groups by 2030, while other sources say the service wants as
many as six carrier groups by 2035.
By the first measure, China would need to have at least 130 carrier-capable fighters in service by
- There seems to be no clear path to this figure. The PLAN currently has fewer than 30 J15s, which are not suitable for the Fujian or any other future carrier.
The Chinese-language Shanghai Morning Post reported in August 2014 that the Liaoning would
have an air group with 36 aircraft, including 24 J-15s. Allowing for some additional training
aircraft and those out of service for maintenance, such an air group would require the entirety of
China’s J-15 fleet.
The lack of Chinese experience in carrier operations is another issue. The U.S. Navy took 40
years to reduce the accident rate of its aircraft to a similar level as land-based aircraft. Around
12,000 aircraft and 8,500 personnel were lost over that period. Attempting to accelerate the
process could result in greater losses among Chinese personnel.
Beijing has had the opportunity to learn from other countries that operate carriers. PLAN
personnel conducted some exercises with Brazil’s now-retired aircraft carrier Sao Paulo.
Whether this has been sufficient is an open question.